Holiday spending in the United States is expected to top $1 trillion this year for the first time, but for many families the season will feel tighter, not bigger. The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.013 trillion in November and December sales, Forbes reported Monday, Nov. 9, even as surveys show shoppers cutting back on how many gifts they buy.
With Thanksgiving 17 days away and Christmas 46 days out, here is what the latest numbers say and how families can plan a holiday that fits their budget.
The big number, and the catch
The NRF projects holiday sales will grow 2.5% to 4.8% this year, with online sales growing faster than in-store sales, according to Forbes. Higher prices are part of the reason the total is so large.
At the same time, many households are stretched. Forbes cited Conference Board data showing consumer confidence at its lowest level since 2014, with frustration over grocery and gas prices. It also cited a Pew Research finding that 4 in 10 Americans had trouble affording basic necessities, and a DOSS survey in which 45% of shoppers said they expect to buy fewer gifts.
University of Virginia professor Luca Cian summed it up for Forbes: the season may look like a boom overall but “feel like a grind” in the average household.
How shoppers say they will cope
An NRF survey of 8,094 adults, conducted Oct. 1-7 by Prosper Insights & Analytics, found that 56% say the economy will affect their holiday plans. Among them:
- 43% will shop for sales more often.
- 31% will comparison shop online more often.
- 29% will use coupons more often.
Timing is part of the strategy. The NRF found 43% planned to start shopping before November, and half of those early shoppers said they wanted to spread their spending out. Meanwhile, 64% plan to do most of their buying over Thanksgiving weekend. Retailers are leaning in: Target has cut prices on about 2,000 more items, Forbes reported, and Walmart’s first holiday deals start this Thursday.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending,” said Allison Zeller of the NRF.
What people actually want
The NRF survey offers good news for anyone on a budget. The most wished-for gift is a gift card (47%), followed by clothing (44%), books and other media (25%) and personal care or beauty items (24%). Those are items that can be bought at a set price, and many can be found on sale.
Why it matters for families: a simple holiday budget plan
A plan made now can help families avoid stress and debt in January. A few practical steps:
- Set one total number first. Decide what the whole season can cost, including food, travel and decorations, before buying anything.
- Make a list with a limit per person. Writing names down keeps impulse buys in check.
- Try a family gift exchange. Drawing names, or a “one gift per person” rule, lowers costs and often makes the day less hectic.
- Watch the payment plan. Forbes noted that Buy Now, Pay Later use is rising. Small payments add up quickly across several stores, so track them like any other bill.
- Give time, not just things. A promised outing, a homemade meal or a handwritten letter can mean more than a store-bought item.
If you are looking for ideas, the Upstormed Family Gift Guide 2026 has picks at different price points. And if your house is already debating when the tree goes up, see our gentler family plan for the early-Christmas debate.
There is also one bit of relief at the pump: the national average price of gas has just fallen below $4 a gallon, which may free up a little room in holiday budgets. Upstormed News will keep tracking prices and deals through the season.
Read more: ‘It’s Time!’ The Early-Christmas Debate Is Back: Here’s a Gentler Family Plan
Is your family cutting back on gifts this year, or trying something new like a gift exchange? Tell us in the comments.
Sources: Forbes, “NRF Forecasts $1.013 Trillion Holiday Even As Consumers Rein In Spending” (November 9, 2026); National Retail Federation, “Affordability Shapes Winter Holiday Shopping, According to NRF Holiday Survey” (October 20, 2026); GasBuddy, “Gas Falls Below $4 for the First Time Since August” (November 9, 2026)
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