Good news for whoever is hosting Thanksgiving this year: there should be plenty of turkeys to go around. A new market report from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, published this week, says turkey production has bounced back from last year’s slump and wholesale prices are holding steady heading into the holiday.
The catch is that the average price shoppers are seeing at the grocery store is still higher than a year ago. Here is what the numbers show and how families can find the best deal.
What the new report says
According to AgriLife Extension economist David Anderson, wholesale prices for whole turkeys averaged $1.80 per pound in late October, up from $1.69 during the same week in 2025. That is still higher than last year, but the gap has narrowed. Last year’s wholesale prices had jumped about 70% from 99 cents a pound, AgriLife said.
On the supply side, the picture is much better than in 2025. Turkey production has rebounded from a decline of more than 8% last year. The number of birds going to market is up about 3%, and because the birds are heavier on average, total turkey production by weight is up nearly 6%.
“That tells me there are plenty of turkeys.” — David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist
Bird flu, which hurt turkey flocks and drove up prices last year, has not disappeared. AgriLife noted that several highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been reported recently, but Anderson said they are not large enough to significantly affect holiday supplies.
What you will pay at the store
Wholesale prices reflect deals between producers and buyers, not what shows up on your receipt. At the retail level, the national average price for frozen, conventionally raised whole turkeys was $1.26 per pound in early November, compared with $1.03 a year earlier, according to AgriLife.
That average can change quickly as stores roll out holiday specials. Grocers usually contract for their holiday turkeys well in advance and often use low prices to draw shoppers in, hoping they will fill the rest of their carts while they are there. Last year, those specials were harder to find than usual. This year, AgriLife says the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s late-October retail report showed more stores featuring turkeys, with about 2,500 stores nationwide advertising frozen conventional whole birds.
Anderson expects more promotions as Thanksgiving gets closer, though he cautioned that prices vary. “Your store may have a different price,” he said.
The bigger food price picture
Turkey is not the only item on the Thanksgiving table, and some other prices are moving in families’ favor. In its October supply and demand estimates, the USDA forecast fourth-quarter 2026 wholesale turkey prices at about 175 cents per pound, only slightly above the same period of 2025. Wholesale egg prices were projected at 120 cents per dozen for the quarter, down from 192 cents a year earlier, Food World News reported. That could help with pies and baking.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service also projected that overall grocery prices for food eaten at home would rise about 2.4% in 2026, with poultry prices up about 1%, according to the same report.
Those numbers come as many households are watching budgets closely. Consumer mood has improved a bit lately, with consumer sentiment rising to a three-month high, but holiday costs still add up quickly.
Why it matters for families
For a family hosting a crowd, the turkey is often the single biggest grocery purchase of the season. A plentiful supply means you are less likely to face empty freezer cases, and more store specials could mean real savings if you shop smart. A few tips:
- Compare weekly flyers. Prices vary widely by store, and many grocers advertise low per-pound prices on frozen turkeys, sometimes with a minimum purchase.
- Watch for more deals closer to the holiday. AgriLife expects promotions to increase as Thanksgiving approaches.
- Buy frozen and plan the thaw. Frozen birds are usually the cheapest option. Leave enough time to thaw a turkey safely in the refrigerator, which can take several days for a large bird.
- Buy the right size. Choosing a bird that fits your guest list helps avoid waste and extra cost.
Families looking to stretch their budget this month may also want to check our guide to Veterans Day 2026 free meals and discounts. Upstormed News will keep tracking Thanksgiving prices, including the annual cost-of-dinner surveys expected later this month.
Read more: ACA open enrollment is here: higher premiums and insurer exits for 2027
Have you seen good turkey deals in your area yet? Tell us in the comments.
Sources: High Plains Journal (Texas A&M AgriLife), “Plenty of turkeys this Thanksgiving as wholesale prices hold steady” (November 6, 2026); KAUZ Newschannel 6, “Turkey wholesale prices hold steady ahead of the Thanksgiving season, AgriLife reports” (November 6, 2026); Food World News, “Planning a Thanksgiving Budget? USDA’s New Forecast Points to Pricier Turkey but Cheaper Eggs This Fall” (October 14, 2026)
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