Flu season usually builds slowly through November and peaks after the holidays. This year it is arriving early. Federal surveillance data, state health officials and infectious disease experts all point to influenza spreading weeks ahead of the typical schedule, driven by a version of the H1N1 virus. Here is what the numbers show and what families can do now.
What the latest data show
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s most recent weekly FluView report, covering the week ending October 24, found that 7.6% of respiratory samples tested by clinical labs were positive for flu. Of the influenza A viruses that public health labs subtyped that week, 98.9% were H1N1. Hospitals reported about 6,100 lab-confirmed flu admissions, and one child’s death from flu has already been reported for the 2026-27 season.
The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 1 million flu illnesses, 16,000 hospitalizations and 900 deaths. The agency notes all of its data are preliminary.
An earlier report from TODAY, published October 25, said CDC estimates showed flu infections growing or likely growing in 44 states as of October 21, and that test positivity a week earlier was 5.7%, compared with under 1% at the same time last year.
New York sees a sharp jump
State-level numbers tell the same story. On Tuesday, Mid Hudson News reported that New York’s respiratory virus dashboard has recorded more than 3,900 lab-confirmed flu cases this season, compared with 668 at the same point in 2025. State Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald described flu as widespread across the state. In Putnam County, health officials said only 15.7% of residents had received a flu shot so far, according to state data.
Why this strain matters
The H1N1 virus spreading now belongs to a group scientists call subclade D.3.1.1 and carries a new mutation, according to TODAY, which cited a preprint study that has not yet been peer-reviewed. Experts quoted in that report said the change may help the virus get around some existing immunity, which could explain why people are getting sick sooner. But they also cautioned that it is too early to know whether this season will be more severe, and that an early start does not necessarily mean a worse one.
Johns Hopkins virologist Andrew Pekosz told TODAY that a strain mismatch means less immunity, not none. Experts also noted that H1N1 has historically hit younger people hard, and children who have not been exposed to it before may be more susceptible.
Last winter was dominated by a different virus, H3N2. For background on everyday prevention, see our earlier guide to cold and flu season basics.
Vaccines and treatment
This season’s flu vaccines are designed to protect against H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B, TODAY reported. Options include standard shots, high-dose shots for older adults and a nasal spray, and the report notes a newly approved mRNA flu vaccine for adults 50 and older. Protection takes about two weeks to build after a shot. No vaccine is 100% effective, but vaccination lowers the chance of severe illness and hospitalization.
Antiviral medicines can shorten illness and reduce severity. They require a prescription and work best when started within 48 hours of symptoms, according to the report. People at higher risk of complications include adults over 65, children under 5 and people with weakened immune systems.
Why it matters for families
With Thanksgiving a little more than three weeks away, an early flu season means more chances for illness to spread at family gatherings. Practical steps include:
- Ask your doctor or pharmacist about vaccination now for each member of the family, since protection takes about two weeks.
- Know the symptoms: fever, chills, fatigue, body aches, runny nose and cough. Flu can look like COVID, so testing helps.
- Call early if a high-risk family member gets sick, since antivirals work best in the first two days.
- Stay home when sick and keep children home from school with a fever.
This article is general information, not medical advice. Talk with your doctor or pharmacist about which vaccine is right for you and what to do if someone in your home gets sick.
Upstormed News will keep watching the CDC’s weekly reports as the season develops.
Read more: FDA warns parents not to serve recalled Once Upon a Farm toddler bars
Has flu already reached your home, school or workplace this fall? Share what you are seeing in the comments.
Sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report: Key Updates for Week 42, ending October 24, 2026” (accessed November 3, 2026); TODAY via NBC Washington, “Flu Activity Is Ramping Up Early This Year. Is a Mutated H1N1 Strain to Blame?” (October 25, 2026); Mid Hudson News, “Early flu season has arrived” (November 3, 2026)
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