The holiday shopping season is officially underway. Retail forecasters count November 1 through December 31 as “the holidays,” and the first numbers suggest this will be another record-setting stretch. For families trying to stretch a budget, the good news is that forecasters have also mapped out when the best deals are most likely to appear.
A $1 trillion season
The National Retail Federation (NRF) said on October 15 that it expects November and December retail sales to grow 4.2% over last year, to about $1.013 trillion. That would push holiday sales past the trillion-dollar mark, up from $972 billion last year. The NRF also expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers.
NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said consumers “remain the bright spot in the economy,” but he also noted that inflation and higher gas prices will hit households differently depending on income. That matches what many families are feeling: gasoline is expensive right now, as we reported in our look at this week’s oil price swings.
Online, Adobe Digital Insights forecasts $275.1 billion in U.S. holiday spending, up 6.7% from 2025. Adobe expects Cyber Monday, November 30, to be the biggest online shopping day of the year at $15.1 billion, with Black Friday close behind at $12.9 billion.
When discounts should peak
Adobe’s forecast, based on its analysis of online retail data, breaks down the best day for each category and the peak discount it expects off list prices:
- Electronics: Cyber Monday, up to 30% off
- Toys: Black Friday, up to 29% off
- Computers: Cyber Monday, up to 23% off
- TVs: Black Friday, up to 23% off
- Apparel: Black Friday, up to 23% off
- Sporting goods: Thanksgiving Day, up to 19% off
- Appliances and furniture: Black Friday, up to 18% off
Adobe says overall discounts should be roughly flat compared with last year, topping out around 30% during Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
Watch the “pay later” buttons
Buy Now, Pay Later services are expected to drive $21.3 billion in online holiday spending, according to Adobe, with about 82% of that coming from phones. These plans can help spread out costs, but missed payments can bring fees and make next month’s budget tighter. A simple rule: if you could not pay for it in full this month, think twice before splitting it into four.
Why it matters for families
A plan beats a panic. Here are a few practical steps for the next four weeks:
- Make a list now. Write down who you are buying for and a dollar limit for each person before the ads start.
- Match the item to the day. If a laptop or tablet is on the list, the data points to Cyber Monday. Toys and TVs look strongest on Black Friday.
- Track prices early. Note today’s price on the items you want so you can tell whether a “deal” is real.
- Shop safely. Scammers follow the crowds. Our guide to five habits to protect your family from holiday shopping scams is worth a read before you click.
- Check recalls. Before buying gifts for babies or young children, look over our list of recent recalls families should check.
Most of all, remember that the best gifts are often time together. A board game night or a homemade meal can mean more than anything in a box.
Upstormed News will keep tracking holiday prices and deals through Cyber Monday.
Read more: Fifteen Minutes Outside: How Time in Nature Can Lift Your Family’s Spirits
Do you shop on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or skip the rush entirely? Share your strategy in the comments.
Sources: National Retail Federation, “NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient” (October 15, 2026); Adobe, “Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY” (September 28, 2026)
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